Joee's space: Investments 财经，股票，投资

Which chinese ADR stocks?

Mon, 24 Dec 2007 00:19:40 GMT

OK! My friends. After hsaring my thoughts, I hope you guys out there know what you need to do now! Here are some china stocks just to name a few( as I need my christmas holiday too. Hohoho...)

• Netease.com (NTES), a Chinese Internet portal, announced the launch of the official upgraded beta of its self-developed search engine You Dao. The new beta search engine features an upgraded function of the webpage search, image search, blog search and desktop dictionary. Industry observers see the search engine as becoming one of the core businesses of Netease.com and providing better search experience for Chinese Internet users. This stock is now sitting at $19.16. RSI indicator is showing sign of oversold and I believe it will bounce soon. It has a market cap of 2.34 Billion. A good buy for a chinese tech stock.

• Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, sale, and research of alumina and primary aluminum in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Alumina and Primary Aluminum.The country's top alumina producer, has raised its spot alumina price by 10.5 percent, after Chinese alumina prices rose 10 percent this month. Another Big-Cap stock of 6.64 Billion! This big buy was just $21.05 on Feb 27, went all the way to $90.95 on Oct 17 in 2007, and now sitting at $51.97. Up $1.82 intraday on Dec 21. Watch out this stock closely. Have a happy holiday!

• China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (LFC), provides annuity products and life insurance to individuals and groups in China. A big-cap stock of 55.62 Billion. This guy was $35.86 back on Mar 5, went up to $106.75 on Oct 17, 2007. Up intraday of $2.04 and now sitting at $78.71. Need to pay attention on this one too. It's slowly and gradually in the process of building a boucing string!

Many more to come, don't worry! Wish you all out there have a Wonderful X'mas !!!! Come back and see more updates on this sites! Leave me a comment or two !

Pick up China shares today. Here is why.

Thu, 20 Dec 2007 20:37:48 GMT

Here is my theory how current market weakness will play out:

No change in China GDP growth - over 11% in 2007
U.S. subprime related bad inventory will be out by end of 2008
Chinese companies will report strong earnings, pleasantly surprising the world how resilient they are to U.S. slow down

If this is the case, Chinese ADRs are BUY under current subdued market conditions. Now, let's talk a little more about those three bullet points.

No change in China GDP growth - over 11% in 2007
Most economist agree that China's increase in gross domestic product (GDP) is 11.4 percent in the current year. That marks over 10 years of double digit growth. Size of China's economy will surpass that of Germany in 2008, just ranking behind Japan and the U.S. I personally believe China's GDP growth will be double digit in 2008 with no signs of slowing. What does that mean for China stocks and China ADRs in particular?
The price of stocks is determined by earnings or profit. The more profit the company makes the more the company is worth. If you went to business school you know how to calculate present value of future earnings. If you didn't go to business school, then simply believe me this. The more the company makes and most importantly, WILL MAKE, the more the company is worth. Now if you divide net worth, called market cap, by number of shares, you get a price per share of share price. This is how much you and me pay for each share.
The good news is that Chinese companies are not only profitable now (Petrochina is Asia's most profitable company for example) but they will make even more in the future. This assumption is based on China's overall economic activity, measured by GDP growth. So if China's economy does well, it means that Petrochina will build more pipelines, gas infrastructure, has to explore more oil etc. It also means that China Mobile will be able to sell more prone plans, expand its subscriber base and make even more profit. And so on.
My point is here that China's overall growth means that the best Chinese companies will make more and more profit, fueling share prices to new highs.
U.S. subprime related bad inventory will be out by end of 2008
Banks stopped irresponsible lending practices at the end of 2006. Those of us who live in the U.S. know that lot of people got mortgages who shouldn't have. I personally came across a top manager at one of the big banks, telling me that they - the bank - gave everyone money, regardless of credit history. The problem of adjustable mortgages, those that kick into high gear in two years, has a limited time span. After 2008, no more two-year adjustable mortrages will bring on more foreclosures. Simply because there will be none. Those that are out there were underwritten between 2004-2006 and all of them will expire by the end of 2008.
It doesn't mean that all bad inventory will be out by 2008, simply because foreclosure is a long process. I estimate however that banks will stop reporting more mortgage related losses by 2008 Q1, and this will be a huge relive. From this point on the U.S. economy should switch into higher gear, firing up stock markets again.
Chinese companies will report strong earnings, pleasantly surprising the world how resilient they are to U.S. slow down
Emerging Asia to weather global econ slowdown - Fitch
HONG KONG, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Asian emerging economies are well positioned to withstand any global downturn next year thanks to current account surpluses and surging foreign exchange reserves, Fitch Ratings said on Friday. Still, economic growth in the region will come down to 7.7 percent in 2008 from 8.7 percent this year because of slowing exports, with Indonesia and Thailand among the few likely to buck the slowing trend, the credit ratings agency said. "Virtually all economies in the region are well prepared for an external shock," said James McCormack, head of Fitch's Asia sovereign ratings group during a teleconference with investors and reporters. McCormack said current account surpluses were the norm across most of the region, while foreign exchange levels were at either records or near record levels, adding "these two factors will prove a pretty comfortable cushion for Asia". Fitch forecast China will again top the region's economic growth table, with a 10.1 percent increase in gross domestic product (GDP), though this would be slower than the 11.4 percent seen this year.

For me, this is a time to buy. Once Chinese companies report 2007 Q4, don't get off guard how well they will do. And as history has shown it many times, Chinese ADRs recover just as fast as they fall. Don't miss out on such a huge opportunity.

想要重出江湖。。。

Thu, 20 Dec 2007 20:25:10 GMT

有一段时间了。。。有一段时间没有跟大家讲财经了。那时各方面的不稳定。。。我也暂时退了下来。现在很想重出江湖。。。但是又很忙，所以迟迟没有消息。我希望我尽量吧！

今天先来提一提我今天重遇我一位朋友的喜悦。两年多了没联络，也不知道她去了哪里。谈话时，她还记得我早在年前说过原油必会迈向$100一桶的大关。

那我就先来提一提原油吧！原油价格不断创出新高，成品油价格受制的状况已经严重。预计若原油价格持续保持高位或呈现上升趋势，再加上国内ＣＰＩ指数在明年得到稳定，成品油价格有望再次提升。

JP,Kin Ming, anybody...I have found a website to play with virtual money for stock investment. I can create a game and we can play as a group and see who comes up to be a winner, how's that sounds? For example, you start with $1000, within a given timeframe, see who comes up to be a winner of all. You can buy long, buy short, options, sell quick or hold on, use your stradegy.........anybody interested? Let me know by dropping a line....